October 2023 Volume 6, Issue 2
El Nino: The effects of the climate phenomenon on agriculture
El Nino has led to drastic changes in climate across the U.S. but an El Nino cycle can create a mixed bag of emotions for farmers of the Sauk Valley.
An El Nino cycle is described by the National Weather Service as, “ A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.” This process in return causes a jetstream of warm air to pass over the Midwest causing a rise in temperature and warmer than usual winters.
This affects farmers in many ways; farmers in the Sauk Valley and around the midwest may prosper during El Nino due to the longer growing season caused by the warmer autumn months. It can also benefit farmers in the Sauk valley especially because crops such as wheat and corn are not being damaged as badly by the harsh weather of normal Midwest winters.
Where this can be an advantage for farmers here in the Sauk Valley, farmers in the west and south are ravaged by drier and colder winters. El Nino also may delay planting in the spring for Sauk Valley farmers due to flooding from the cool, wet conditions of the previous winter.
Dr Micheal R. Selover of the agriculture program here at Sauk described exactly how these wetter than normal winter conditions may affect midwest farmers in the spring, “It's really bad for the next spring planting, The ground is usually too wet which is really bad for emergence, and the longer you delay that the less available time there is for your crop to pick up energy from the sun and turn into something we harvest.”
Delays in planting for the next year could lead to effects of El Nino in agriculture being felt by consumers as well as farmers. If conditions this winter are affected drastically by el Nino consumers could see a sharp uptick in prices of produce such as fresh fruit, but when it comes to produce in the midwest it would take much longer for the effects of this winter to affect the everyday consumer.
When asked about the possibility of a price spike in corn, wheat, and other products from the Midwest, Dr Selover stated, “it wouldn't be noticeable for about a year, especially with what we grow here in Illinois. The corn that will be harvested next fall takes about 6 months to a year for it to turn into a product on the shelves. We don't grow as much fresh produce as say California or Florida. Our corn becomes things like corn starch and corn meal, and our soy gets turned into things like proteins and other additives. So it takes time for the prices of those to go up incrementally. So for instance the price hikes we saw this past year were partly due to the horrible harvest we had two years ago.”
The National Weather Service anticipates that El Nino conditions will continue on until around the beginning of spring next year.